Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data

Abstract Globally, thunderstorms are responsible for a significant fraction of rainfall, and in the mid-latitudes often produce extreme weather, including large hail, tornadoes damaging winds. Despite this importance, how global frequency their accompanying hazards has changed over past 4 decades remains unclear. Large-scale diagnostics applied to climate models have suggested that intensity is likely increase future. Here, we show according ERA5 convective available potential energy (CAPE) precipitation (CP) decreased tropics subtropics with simultaneous increases 0–6 km wind shear (BS06). Conversely, rawinsonde observations paint different picture across increasing CAPE decreases BS06. Differing trends disagreement between rawinsondes observed some regions suggest results should be interpreted caution, especially CP where uncertainty highest reliable long-term missing.